Elliott Wave Stock Market Forecast - November 17, 2006
Given the various Fibonacci price and time relationships that occured the week of October 27th, I thought it was a good bet that the DJIA had completed wave e of (b) at 12236. I was wrong...and it turned out only to be the end of wave 3 of the pattern. There are so many Fibonacci time and price relationships forming betweeen now and next week, that if the DJIA does not complete wave e of (b) and turn sharply lower after next week, I will have to question my analysis and go back to the drawing board.
As I point out in the chart above, next week is the 89th week from the March 7, 2005 high and 144th week from the February 19, 2004 high. Wave (b) has now lasted about 3 times that of wave (a). In addition to time cycle relationships, there are many price relationships between the waves of INTERMEDIATE wave B. Wave a of (b) is a Fibonacci 76.4 percent of wave c of (b). Waves b and d are virtually equal in size and both are a Fibonacci 61.8 percent of wave c. Wave e appears to be on its way to equalling the size of wave c. If all these relationships are meaningful (and they should be)...and are viewed in conjuction with other technical signals pointing to a top, then a wave (c) decline is imminent...and will retrace all of the gains since the October 2004 lows. If I am wrong, the only alternative I can see is that the DJIA is tracing out a double three pattern for INTERMEDIATE wave B and we would only see a decline equal in proportion to waves b and d of (b).
As I point out in the chart above, next week is the 89th week from the March 7, 2005 high and 144th week from the February 19, 2004 high. Wave (b) has now lasted about 3 times that of wave (a). In addition to time cycle relationships, there are many price relationships between the waves of INTERMEDIATE wave B. Wave a of (b) is a Fibonacci 76.4 percent of wave c of (b). Waves b and d are virtually equal in size and both are a Fibonacci 61.8 percent of wave c. Wave e appears to be on its way to equalling the size of wave c. If all these relationships are meaningful (and they should be)...and are viewed in conjuction with other technical signals pointing to a top, then a wave (c) decline is imminent...and will retrace all of the gains since the October 2004 lows. If I am wrong, the only alternative I can see is that the DJIA is tracing out a double three pattern for INTERMEDIATE wave B and we would only see a decline equal in proportion to waves b and d of (b).
posted by Elliot Brenner at 7:34 PM
